Trigger Question #115:
You know the adage “prepare for the worst, hope for the best.” You have probably said it, or thought it, more than once. But do you know which word is key in that sentence?
No, the keyword is not prepare. Nor is it hope. It is the word worst.
When asked, “What is the worst thing that can happen?” many of us think in terms of what we already know, in terms of the worst things that have happened. That’s because we find comfort in our experience, in our frame of reference, in what we can make sense of and explain. The problem, of course, is that this relates to our known past, not to our unknowable future.
I like the way Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains this in his book Antifragile (p.59): “They take the worst historical recession, the worst war, the worst historical move in interest rates, or the worst point in unemployment as an exact estimate for the worst future outcome. But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.”
The catch is that the historic worst is the most-bad that has already happened. And because we “know” this past event, it becomes a “fixed” point in our thinking. We can’t easily imaging anything worse than that. We cannot easily picture unknown more-bad than the most-bad we know.
But if you are a leader or a manager, then it is your responsibility somehow to imagine the most-bad about the future. Not because responsible leaders are pessimists, but because they should be prepared. And you must figure out how to articulate this most-bad picture in your head so that others can see and understand your nightmare. Then you must help them prepare for that nightmare, that worse than historic worst case.
This seems like a lot of hard work for something that might never happen. So why do it? Because if you have prepared for the worst, and the worst happens, you won’t be surprised into inaction. And if it doesn’t happen, well, you will have learned a lot. What-if thinking is never wasted in a changing, competitive world.
In case you need more convincing, remember this other adage about prevention being better than cure. Meaning what exactly? Often it is better to invest in preventing a problem than to spend effort dealing with it after it has happened.
Remember, in leadership, if you plan for bad, you are not thinking bad enough. You must think worse than bad. Only then should you plan, prepare, and push ahead.
That’s how you nudge the drag of despair towards the get-up-and-go of hope.
Welcome to my side of the nonsense divide.
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Quote of the Moment:
“When I’m lucky, I get good-better-best to trample all over bad-worse-worst.” The Chief Nonsense Officer.
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